On 18 February 2025, the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 might impact Earth on 22 December 2032, as assessed by ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre, rose to 2.8%.
This means that 2024 YR4 has now surpassed the 2.7% chance of impact briefly associated with the much larger asteroid (99942) Apophis back in 2004.
For asteroids larger than 30 metres in size, 2024 YR4 now holds the record for the highest impact probability reached, and the longest time spent with an impact probability greater than 1%.
It is important to note that this rising impact probability is an expected result as we continue to improve our knowledge of the asteroid’s orbit.
As we narrow down where exactly 2024 YR4 will be located on 22 December 2032, Earth fills up a larger fraction of our shrinking uncertainty region.
As more observations of the asteroid are made, the uncertainty region will continue to shrink and the impact probability may continue to rise. If we reach a point at which Earth is no longer inside this region, the impact probability will quickly drop to 0.
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